Showing posts with label J.J. Redick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J.J. Redick. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Feb. 11)

The good news is that it's Wednesday and we have a busy slate of games (12) tonight. The bad news is that we will go a full week without any NBA DFS contests with only one game on tap tomorrow night before the start of the All-Star break.


With that said, here are my favorite DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Wednesday's NBA games:

PG - Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (vs. ORL), $5,400: Like any rookie, Payton has had some ups and downs this season, but he has had scored at least 28.75 fantasy points in back-to-back games and in three of his past four. Over the past month, Payton has averaged 29.13 fantasy points in 15 games. During that 15-game span, he has averaged 10.87 points, 6.73 assists, 4.13 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. And with Tobias Harris out tonight, Payton should also see a slight bump in minutes and usage rate as well.

Others to consider: Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs ($4,900); J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks ($4,900); George Hill, Indiana Pacers ($4,900); Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics ($4,700); Ramon Sessions, Sacramento Kings ($4,200); Dante Exum, Utah Jazz ($3,300)

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SG - J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers (vs. HOU), $3,300: With James Harden scoring nearly 150 fantasy points over his past two games, many will spend all the way to Harden ($10,300) at shooting guard tonight. If you're looking for a viable option at the opposite end of the price spectrum, Redick is worth a look. Returning to the starting lineup from back spasms, he scored 15 (real) points and 25.5 fantasy points in 31 minutes on Feb. 9th. Not only is his salary roughly $1,000 less than its typical range, but the Rockets have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

Others to consider: Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,100); Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans ($5,900); Jamaal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers ($5,500); Rodney Stuckey, Indiana Pacers ($4,300); Elijah Millsap (if Joe Ingles is ruled out), Utah Jazz ($3,600); J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers ($3,300); Jodie Meeks, Detroit Pistons ($3,300); Courtney Lee, Memphis Grizzlies ($3,100); Garrett Temple, Washington Wizards ($3,000)

SF - Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets (at LAC), $5,700: Ariza had just 25.75 fantasy points last night, but it was the first time in five games that he had less than 30 fantasy points. Over that five-game span, he has averaged 33.85 fantasy points, which is 5.94x tonight's salary. During that span, Ariza has averaged 15.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.4 steals per game and has connected on 15-of-32 three-point attempts. Given that the Clippers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, Ariza should reach or exceed value once again.

Others to consider: Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks ($6,500); Josh Smith, Houston Rockets ($6,400); Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,200); Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers ($5,400); C.J. Miles, Indiana Pacers ($4,300); Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves ($3,400); Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies ($3,100)

PF - Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (vs. UTA), $6,400: With the All-Star break nearly upon us and an opportunity for Nowitzki to rest, perhaps he sees a few more minutes than typical tonight with Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler both out. In addition, Monta Ellis is considered questionable for tonight's game. Either way, Nowitzki has a rock-solid floor with a minimum of 20.75 fantasy points in 31 consecutive games. With only two games of 40-plus fantasy points during that same span, however, Nowitzki makes for a better play in cash games than tournaments.

Others to consider: David West, Indiana Pacers ($6,500); Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,000); Jason Smith, New York Knicks ($4,900); Mitch McGary, Oklahoma City Thunder ($3,800); Lance Thomas, New York Knicks ($3,200)

C - Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz (at DAL), $5,800: Kanter has three double-doubles with more than 30 fantasy points in his past four games and he has a chance to have another strong game with Tyson Chandler out. Not that I expect a DeAndre Jordan-type outing from Kanter against a Chandler-less Mavs interior defense, but Kanter has shown some significant upside with back-to-back games of 49.75 and 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago.

Others to consider: Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards ($5,100); Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,100); Alexis Ajinca (if Anthony Davis is out), New Orleans Pelicans ($3,800);

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Thursday, February 5, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Feb. 5)

In tonight's four-game slate, one of those games is not like the other. All four games are projected to be fairly close (five-point spreads or less), but three of the four games have an over-under of 207 points or more. The other, Hornets vs. Wizards, has an over-under of 186.5 points.

There are a few decent plays in the expected low-scoring affair, but in general, I'll look to roster mostly players from the three higher-scoring games.


With that said, here are my favorite DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Thursday's NBA games:

PG - J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks (at SAC), $3,400: Once again, Barea will draw the start and he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in back-to-back starts with Rajon Rondo sidelined. In order to reach 6x tonight's salary, Barea needs to score only 20.4 fantasy points and he should do that fairly easily. Not only have the Kings have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, but only the Trail Blazers are projected to score more points tonight than the Mavs based on Vegas odds.

Others to consider: Darren Collison, Sacramento Kings ($6,500); Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns ($6,100); Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns ($5,400); Devin Harris, Dallas Mavericks ($3,900)

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SG - Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers (at CLE), $5,000: As J.J. Redick deals with back spasms and is expected to miss another game, Crawford should get another start. Although he made less than one-third of his 22 (yes, 22!) shot attempts on Monday, Crawford scored 30.25 fantasy points in 37 minutes against the Nets. Crawford has played 30-plus minutes in three of his past five games and has scored at least 30 fantasy points in all three of those 30-minute games.

Others to consider: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards ($6,000); Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers ($6,000); Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings ($3,900)

SF - Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers (vs. PHO), $5,000: I considered going back to the well here with Chandler Parsons, my small forward value pick from yesterday, but I like Batum as much tonight. As noted earlier, the Blazers are projected to score the most points tonight and the Suns have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. Batum made just two-of-seven shots on Tuesday yet finished with 34.5 fantasy points as he added eight rebounds, six assists, two blocks and a steal. And without LaMarcus Aldridge in the lineup, Batum went off for 52.5 fantasy points against the Suns just a couple of weeks ago. I don't expect another 50-point game against the Suns, but Batum's ability to rack up multiple statistical categories give him a strong chance to exceed value.

Others to consider: Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks ($5,700); Matt Barnes, Los Angeles Clippers ($4,200)

PF - Brandan Wright, Phoenix Suns (at POR), $3,000: Wright lacks upside as he has played only 17, 19, 19 and 22 minutes over his past four games, respectively. That said, the efficient Wright has a solid floor -- minimum of 16.0 fantasy points over those four games with an average of 19.5 per game over that four-game span -- to make him a viable punt option at the position at the contest-minimum salary.

Others to consider: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks ($6,200); Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns ($5,900); Cody Zeller, Charlotte Hornets ($5,300)

C - Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. LAC), $5,200: Mozgov has at least 21 fantasy points in eight of his past nine games and has averaged 27.81 per game (5.35x tonight's salary) over that nine-game span. Over that stretch, Mozgov has averaged 10.66 points, 8.78 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 0.78 steals per game with four double-doubles. In addition, the Clippers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

Others to consider: Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks ($6,400); Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards ($5,000); Robin Lopez, Portland Trail Blazers ($4,400); Alex Len, Phoenix Suns ($3,200)

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Monday, February 2, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Feb. 2)

When setting your DraftKings lineup(s) today, you will notice that all players priced at $8,700 or higher have favorable matchups tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans power forward Anthony Davis ($10,800) has the "worst" matchup of that group, but the Hawks have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. Of course, the Unibrow (and other players in his salary stratosphere) tend to be matchup-proof anyways.

The only concern for the other $10,000 guys -- LeBron James ($10,600, vs. PHI) or Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant ($10,100 and $10,000, vs. ORL) -- is the blowout potential. For at least three quarters, however, they should rack up fantasy points at an impressive clip.

In order to afford one (or more) of the high-priced studs, you'll need to find some value plays elsewhere to generate some salary-cap relief.


With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Monday's NBA games:

PG - Devin Harris, Dallas Mavericks (vs. MIN), $3,100: With Rajon Rondo (face) already ruled out for Monday, Harris is expected to get the start at point for one of the league's most efficient offenses -- second only to Clippers in Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions). With a salary only $100 above the contest minimum, Harris should be a lock to reach 6x value (18.6 fantasy points) with upside for more. In his past two games, Harris has played 27 and 30 minutes and finished with 23.0 and 21.25 fantasy points, respectively.

Others to consider: Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic ($5,700); Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns ($5,400); Greivis Vasquez, Toronto Raptors ($4,000); J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks ($3,000)

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SG - J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers (at BKN), $3,600: It's not often that I start Redick, but he provides plenty of salary-cap relief if you want to pay up elsewhere and he should easily be able to reach value. Over the past 10 games, he has been priced between $4,000 and $4,600, which is his normally salary range. In other words, he's not usually priced below $4K. Redick needs just 18.0 fantasy points to reach 5x value, something he has done in five of his past seven games.

Others to consider: Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans ($6,200); Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards ($5,900); Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks ($5,600); Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks ($5,200); Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,100); J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,700); Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets ($4,600); O.J. Mayo, Milwaukee Bucks ($4,500); Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks ($4,000); Evan Fournier (if Oladipo is out again), Orlando Magic ($3,700)

SF - Jerami Grant, Philadelphia 76ers (at CLE), $3,000: The dropoff in small forward salaries is steep with LeBron and KD both in the five-figure range, then Andrew Wiggins at $6,900 and everybody else at $5,600 or less. If you decide to not pay up and/or punt the position, Grant provides salary-cap relief with his minimum salary and should easily reach value. Grant only gets 20-something minutes per night, but he has the rare potential for multiple three-pointers and blocked shots on any given night and has averaged 18.79 fantasy points per game over his past seven games. Grant has 16.5 fantasy points in five consecutive games and in seven of his past eight.

Others to consider: Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks ($5,300); Paul Pierce, Washington Wizards ($4,800); Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Philadelphia 76ers ($4,200); Jared Dudley, Milwaukee Bucks ($4,100); Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies ($3,000)

PF - Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (at CLE), $5,200: In his past 10 games played, Noel has averaged 30.78 fantasy points per game, which would be nearly 6x his salary (5.92). Noel has reached at least 5x tonight's salary (26.0 points) in seven of those 10 games with some upside for 45-plus points, something he has done twice during that stretch. Over that 10-game span, Noel has averaged 9.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 2.2 blocks per game.

Others to consider: Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,200); Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks ($6,200); Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns ($6,000); Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans ($5,600); Cody Zeller, Charlotte Bobcats ($5,500); John Henson, Milwaukee Bucks ($4,600); Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors ($4,400); Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors ($4,100);

C - Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets (vs. LAC), $6,200: It was tough choosing a "favorite" center play as I like, but don't love, all of the options I debated. Obviously, we shouldn't expect a repeat performance of Friday's 63.0-point performance in overtime, but Lopez has played at least 31 minutes and scored at least 31 fantasy points in back-to-back games. If he gets 30-plus minutes tonight versus the Clippers, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing centers, Lopez should have a chance to reach value once again.

Others to consider: Mason Plumlee, Brooklyn Nets ($5,400); Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,300); Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,000); Alex Len, Phoenix Suns ($3,500)

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Saturday, April 12, 2014

Daily Fantasy Basketball: FanDuel Values for April 12th

If you play daily fantasy sports (and who doesn't these days?!), you know that one of the keys to success is uncovering undervalued players to allow you to load up on studs elsewhere.

In case you've never played daily fantasy basketball, every player has a salary and your roster cannot exceed the game's salary-cap maximum.

For FanDuel Fantasy NBA leagues, rosters consist of nine players and the salary cap is $60,000, which averages to roughly $6,667 per player. To give you an idea of the range for Saturday's games, Heat SF LeBron James ($10,600) has the contest's highest salary while many are tied for the lowest at the game-minimum salary ($3,500).

There are a number of benefits compared to traditional full-season re-draft leagues, such as:
  • you don't have to worry about being saddled by players sidelined by injury;
  • having a late pick doesn't rule out owning studs like Kevin Durant or LeBron James;
  • you get the instant gratification of winning your league(s) that night.
And you know that enthusiasm you have after drafting your fantasy team(s)? Well, you get to experience that feeling on a nightly basis with daily fantasy basketball.

OK, with the preliminary stuff out of the way, here are some value plays to consider for Saturday (April 12th) FanDuel leagues:

PG - Ramon Sessions, Milwaukee Bucks (at WAS), $6,600: While the matchup isn't all that favorable, Sessions has played 40-plus minutes in eight of his past nine games with 38 being the exception. Over that nine-game span, Sessions is averaging 19.0 points, 6.1 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game.

PG - Ray McCallum, Sacramento Kings (at LAC), $5,900: Like Sessions, McCallum's matchup is not favorable — in fact, it's horrible. The Clips have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing point guards. That said, McCallum has played 40-plus minutes in nine consecutive games and has scored more than 30 fantasy points in five of his past seven games. In his past seven games, McCallum is averaging 15.29 points, 7.86 assists, 3.14 rebounds and 2.00 steals per game.

PG - Trey Burke, PG, Utah Jazz (at DEN), $5,300: Burke has two double-doubles in his past three games and even scored 50.3 fantasy points in one of those games. Over those three games, he has averaged 14.0 points and 10.33 assists per game. The Nuggets have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

PG - Luke Ridnour, Charlotte Bobcats (vs. PHI), $3,500: Ridnour's fantasy value hinges on the availability of Kemba Walker (ankle) on Saturday. With Walker sitting out last night's game, Ridnour started at the point and finished with 24.9 fantasy points (nine points, five assists and three steals) against the Celtics. If Walker misses tonight's game, Ridnour will get a start vs. the fantasy-friendly Sixers at a contest-minimum salary.

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SG - Randy Foye, Denver Nuggets (vs. UTA), $6,400: Foye has scored 102.4 fantasy points combined in his past two games. In those two games, he has averaged 25.0 points, 11.0 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. Over his past six games, he has four outings with at least 30 fantasy points.

SG - J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers (vs. SAC), $4,600: Redick has been back for three games and he has yet to score more than 18.6 fantasy points since his return. That could change with a matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

SG - Austin Rivers, New Orleans Pelicans (at HOU), $4,300: Rivers has been extremely productive in his past two outings with 31-plus fantasy points in both games. He has averaged 14.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists in those two games. The Rockets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

SG - Chris Douglas-Roberts, Charlotte Bobcats (vs. PHI), $4,100: For the first time in four games, Douglas-Roberts scored more than 20 fantasy points last night. With a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers, a repeat performance seems like a reasonable expectation.

SF - Jeff Green, Boston Celtics (at CLE), $5,700: Green has been solid, but not spectacular, with 20-plus fantasy points in seven of his past eight games. With a high of 29.5 fantasy points during that span, Green gets a decent opportunity to crack 30 fantasy points against the Cavs. Cleveland has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.

SF - Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (at WAS), $5,100: Middleton has scored at least 22.6 fantasy points in three consecutive games.

SF - Jeremy Evans, Utah Jazz (at DEN), $3,700: Evans has played at least 23 minutes in each of his past three games and he has averaged 19.03 fantasy points during that stretch. The Nuggets have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards so Evans could be a decent cheap play tonight if he gets 20-something minutes again.

PF - Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics (at CLE), $6,500: In his past three games, Sullinger has either scored 20 points or posted a double-double (or both). Over his past nine games, he is averaging 16.33 points, 7.89 rebounds and just shy of 30 fantasy points (29.24) per game.

PF - Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets (vs. NO), $6,200: Jones has scored a minimum of 23 fantasy points in each of his past five games, but he has averaged 32.6 fantasy points during that span. Only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season than the Pelicans.

PF - Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. BOS), $5,200: With three double-doubles in his past six games, Thompson is averaging 12.0 points and 9.33 rebounds per game over that stretch. In addition, he has at least 35 fantasy points in three of those games including last night's matchup against the Bucks.

PF - Josh McRoberts, Charlotte Bobcats (vs. PHI), $4,900: Since missing three games, McBob has scored at least 20 fantasy points in both games since his return. The best could come tonight as the Bobcats host the Sixers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.

C - Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz (at DEN), $6,100: This game features a pair of foreign-born fantasy centers that are both excellent values. Kanter has averaged 15.0 points and 16.0 rebounds with 1.5 blocks per game over his past two games. The Nuggets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this year.

C - Omer Asik, Houston Rockets (vs. NO), $5,900: Even with just 24 minutes apiece in his past three outings, the good times continue to roll for Asik and his fantasy owners. In the month of April, Asik has had double-digit rebounds in every game including a pair of games with 23 boards and four double-doubles. In his seven April games, Asik has averaged 11.29 points, 16.43 boards, 1.28 blocks and 1.00 steals per game.

C - Timofey Mozgov, Denver Nuggets (vs. UTA), $5,200: Mozgov has made numerous appearances on these posts, but he has really delivered for DFSers lately. In 43 minutes against the Warriors on Thursday, Mozgov scored 23 points with 29 rebounds and added three assists, three blocks and a steal for 68.3 fantasy points. While a repeat performance would be unrealistic, Mozgov has averaged 16.0 points, 9.44 boards and 1.56 blocks per game in his last nine. In addition, the Jazz have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

There are other excellent options at center, but it's hard to imagine many owners starting someone other than Mozgov unless they go with a stud like DeMarcus Cousins or Al Jefferson.

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