The Basketball Junkie: January 2015

Friday, January 30, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Jan. 30)

With my value posts in the past, I've listed several options at each position that I liked for that night's games. The idea was that multiple suggestions would lead to greater flexibility when constructing your lineups.

For today's post, I'm going to switch things up and give you my favorite value play at each position as well as list several alternative options that I like as well.

View image | gettyimages.com

With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Friday's NBA games:

PG - Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat (vs. DAL), $4,800: With Dwyane Wade (hamstring) out for several weeks and Luol Deng (calf) out on Friday as well, Chalmers will get a nice bump in his usage rate. Chalmers has scored 30-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games and should be able to duplicate those numbers against the Mavs, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

Others to consider: Darren Collison, Sacramento Kings ($6,500); Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets ($6,200); Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns ($5,400); Greivis Vasquez, Toronto Raptors ($4,200); Zach LaVine (if Mo Williams is out), Minnesota Timberwolves ($4,000)

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SG - Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves (at PHI), $4,600: In the two games back in November before Martin's extended absence, he scored 40.75 and 51.5 fantasy points, respectively. Returning from his wrist injury on Wednesday, Martin came off the bench, but he played 29 minutes and scored 21 (real) points as well as 27.5 fantasy points. Facing a Sixers team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing off guards, Martin should build upon the success he had earlier this week.

Others to consider: Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans ($5,900); J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,000); Lou Williams, Toronto Raptors ($4,700); Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics ($4,200); Iman Shumpert, Cleveland Cavaliers ($3,000)

SF - Joe Ingles, Utah Jazz (vs. GS), $4,100: I strongly considered listing Danny Granger here as he should get another start with Deng ruled out, but Ingles has played a minimum of 30 minutes and scored at least 21.5 fantasy points in four consecutive games. Over that four-game span, Ingles has averaged 8.5 points including 2.0 three's, 6.0 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game.

Others to consider: Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks ($5,800); Josh Smith, Houston Rockets ($5,300); Danny Granger, Miami Heat ($3,400); Jerami Grant, Philadelphia 76ers ($3,200)

PF - Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (vs. MIN), $5,000: With a relatively inconsistent game log, Noel is better as a tournament play, but he has averaged nearly 30 fantasy points (29.28) per game over his past eight games. Noel has averaged 9.13 points and 7.88 rebounds per game during that span, but his upside comes from both blocks (2.0/G over past 10 games) and steals (2.11/G over past nine games). Last but not least, the T'Wolves have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.

Others to consider: Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns ($5,800); Donatas Motiejunas, Houston Rockets ($5,300); Brandon Bass, Boston Celtics ($5,200); Robert Covington, Philadelphia 76ers ($5,200)

C - Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls (at PHO), $6,400: Both Noah and Miami's Hassan Whiteside are priced at $6,400 and there is no wrong choice here, but I like Noah's matchup better. (To be fair, I'll have plenty of exposure to Whiteside tonight as well, though.) One concern is that the Bulls game went into double OT last night and Noah has now played 40-plus minutes in two games over three nights, but he was a point and assist shy of a triple-double last night and has racked up 96.0 fantasy points in those two games. Even though the Bulls are 5.5-point underdogs, they are projected to score the sixth-most points (of 18 teams) based on Vegas odds tonight.

Others to consider: Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat ($6,400); Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,200); Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,000); Omer Asik, New Orleans Pelicans ($4,400); Alex Len, Phoenix Suns ($4,200); Alexis Ajinca (if Anthony Davis is out), New Orleans Pelicans ($3,000)

* Fantasy Basketball World Championship (FBWC): Qualify for DraftKings FBWC and spend a five-night VIP experience in Vegas culminating in a one-in-40 shot at the $1 MILLION top prize.

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Thursday, January 29, 2015

Fantasy NBA FanDuel DFS Values (Jan. 29)

Earlier today, I posted some value plays that I like on DraftKings and now I turn my attention to FanDuel.

With that said, here are some FanDuel values (salaries of $7,000 or less) for Thursday's NBA games:

View image | gettyimages.com

PG - Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (vs. MIL), $6,000: Payton has displayed incredible consistency for a rookie point guard by scoring more than 25 fantasy points in eight consecutive games. Over that stretch, Payton has averaged 13.13 points, 8.0 assists and 2.13 steals per game. Although the Bucks have held opposing point guards to the fewest fantasy points this season, Payton does a number of different things to generate fantasy points.

PG - Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (at IND), $4,800: Playing 30 or more minutes in all five of his starts, Galloway has scored at least 20 fantasy points in all five of those games. Based on average production of 29.16 fantasy points per game as a starter, he's priced at 6.08 times his bargain-basement salary. During that five-game span, he has averaged 15.2 points, 2.0 three's, 5.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Especially if Carmelo Anthony sits on the second night of a back-to-back, Galloway may need to shoulder more of the scoring load.

PG - Beno Udrih, Memphis Grizzlies (vs. DEN), $4,200: If Mike Conley (wrist) misses another game (and he's considered to be a game-time decision), then Udrih is a strong value play even though Nick Calathes was more productive in their last game. Unfortunately, the Grizzlies pay at 8 PM so it's possible that we won't know Conley's status prior to the 7 p.m. lineup lock. That said, Udrih has played at least 20 minutes in five of his past seven games and has at least 21 fantasy points in four of those five 20-minute games.

* FanDuel's $275K NBA Super Slam: $275,000 in prizes including $20,000 to 1st in tonight's NBA Slam tourney ($25 entry).

SG - Arron Afflalo, Denver Nuggets (at MEM), $5,900: Afflalo has scored more than 20 fantasy points in 13 of his past 14 games and has averaged 26.62 during that 14-game span. The Grizzlies have one of the league's best defenses and play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league, but Afflalo has a high floor and scored 28.2 fantasy points in his first matchup against the Grizz.

SG - Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. CHI), $3,700: Clarkson is nearly a must-start for me tonight. Not only is he starting at point guard and only $200 above the minimum salary, but the combo guard is listed at shooting guard on FanDuel (unlike DraftKings, PG). Plus, we have to start two SGs on FanDuel. In his third consecutive start on Tuesday, Clarkson played more than 36 minutes, scored 18 (real) points and 27.1 fantasy points, all of which were highs this season. He has scored at least 19.6 fantasy points in two of his three starts and he just needs to score 18.5 fantasy points to reach 5x value.

SF - Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $5,500: Compared to other positions, small forward leaves a lot to be desired tonight. Having to start two of them exacerbates the issue. That said, Middleton has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 11 of 13 games and he has averaged nearly 30 fantasy points (29.83) over his past three.

SF - Lance Thomas, New York Knicks (at IND), $4,000: With or without Carmelo Anthony in the lineup, Thomas has been productive in his past three games. The game during that span that Melo missed, however, Thomas played 41 minutes compared to 25 minutes in the other two games. That said, he has scored at least 21.5 fantasy points in all three games with an average of 26.8. If Melo sits, Thomas becomes an especially attractive value play at small forward.

PF - David West, Indiana Pacers (vs. NYK), $6,500: Although he rarely hits 40-plus fantasy points, West is remarkably consistent and priced below the average starting salary ($6,667). In his past 25 games, West has scored less than 20 fantasy points only twice and those two games were 19.6 and 18.7 points, respectively. During that same 25-game span, he's averaging 28.52 FPPG and has averaged a line of 13.12/7.28/3.56 with 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks per game as well.

PF - Jason Smith, New York Knicks (at IND), $4,200: Smith had his first double-double of the season last night with 11 points and 11 rebounds while adding six assists and a steal. He has now played 32-plus minutes in five consecutive games. Smith has scored at least 30 fantasy points in two of his past three games and at least 24 fantasy points in four of his past five games.

C - Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls (at LAL), $6,500: Like West, I like Noah a little more on FanDuel than DraftKings. In both cases, they are priced slightly higher than the average salary on DraftKings but slightly less than the average salary on FanDuel. It was good to see Noah get his first double-double in 11 games and blow up for 47 points in his last game. While repeat numbers (18/15 with six assists and two steals) shouldn't be expected for tonight's game, it's excellent that he feels as good as he has all season and has an exploitable matchup against the Lakers tonight.

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Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Jan. 29)

Salaries are fairly low at the top tonight as only six players, four of which are bigs (PF/C), are priced at $8,000 or more, which includes brothers Pau Gasol ($9,300) and Marc Gasol ($8,000).

Both Gasol brothers have great matchups -- Pau vs. LAL and Marc vs. DEN -- and stacking them will be a popular strategy tonight. Marc's teammate Zach Randolph ($8,200) is a strong play as well as the Nuggets allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards and Z-Bo has 10 consecutive double-doubles.

If you load up on high(er)-priced bigs, the good news is there is plenty of value at guard tonight to allow you do so.

View image | gettyimages.com

With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Thursday's NBA games:

PG - Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (vs. MIL), $5,600: With impressive consistency for a rookie point guard, Payton scored an eight-game low of 26.5 fantasy points against the Grizzlies on Monday. Over that stretch, Payton has averaged 13.13 points, 8.0 assists and 2.13 steals per game. Although the Bucks have held opposing point guards to the fewest fantasy points this season, Payton does a number of different things to generate fantasy points.

PG - Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (at IND), $4,300: Playing 30 or more minutes in all five of his starts, Galloway has scored at least 32 fantasy points in four of those five games. Based on average production of 30.95 fantasy points per game as a starter, he's priced at 7.2 times his bargain-basement salary. During that five-game span, he has averaged 15.2 points, 2.0 three's, 5.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game. If Carmelo Anthony rests on the second night of their back-to-back, Galloway may need to shoulder more of the scoring load.

PG - Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. CHI), $3,800: Starting his third consecutive game at the point on Tuesday, Clarkson played more than 36 minutes, scored 18 (real) points and 28.25 fantasy points, all of which were highs this season. He has exceeded 20 fantasy points in two of his three starts and he just needs to score 19.0 fantasy points to reach 5x value.

PG - Beno Udrih, Memphis Grizzlies (vs. DEN), $3,200: If Mike Conley (wrist) misses another game, then Udrih is a strong value play even though Nick Calathes was more productive in their last game. That said, Udrih has played at least 20 minutes in five of his past seven games and has at least 22 fantasy points in four of those five games with 20-plus minutes.

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SG - Arron Afflalo, Denver Nuggets (at MEM), $6,100: Afflalo has scored at least 22.5 fantasy points in 13 of his past 14 games and has averaged 28.7 during that 14-game span. The Grizzlies have one of the league's best defenses and play at the fifth-slowest pace, but Afflalo has a high floor and scored 29.75 fantasy points in his first matchup against the Grizz.

SG - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $5,400: The allotment of minutes by Jason Kidd is as difficult to predict as the allocation of workloads to running backs by Bill Belichick, but the Greek Freak has seen 33-plus minutes in five of his past six games. During that span, he has averaged 25.67 fantasy points per game -- or slightly less than 5x his salary (4.75). With his all-around statistical contributions, The Alphabet has upside for 35-40 points (and would be 1 and 2 in the player nickname rankings tonight).

SG - O.J. Mayo, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $4,400: With limited upside as a bench player getting less than 30 minutes per night, Mayo has still been consistent with at least 21.5 fantasy points in nine consecutive games and an average of 25.97 during that stretch. Mayo needs just 22.0 fantasy points to reach 5x value.

SF - Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $5,200: On nights with a large slate of games, I typically avoid the Bucks with the possible exception of Brandon Knight. On a night with four games, I'm more willing to roll with some Bucks in my lineups. That said, Middleton has scored at least 25 fantasy points in three consecutive games and in six of his past nine. Based on the options throughout the price scale tonight, small forward is my least favorite position, which means that Middleton will likely be my most-owned Buck tonight.

PF - David West, Indiana Pacers (vs. NYK), $6,300: Perhaps one of the least exciting options in daily fantasy basketball, West is consistently productive, which is exciting in its own way. In his past 25 games, West has scored less than 20 fantasy points only once and that one game was 19.5 points. During that same 25-game span, he's averaging 30.18 FPPG and has averaged a line of 13.12/7.28/3.56 with 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks per game as well.

PF - Jason Smith, New York Knicks (at IND), $3,900: Smith had his first double-double of the season last night with 11 points and 11 rebounds while adding six assists and a steal. Smith has played 32-plus minutes in five consecutive games and he has scored at least 25.5 fantasy points in four of those games.

C - Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls (at LAL), $6,300: Although we shouldn't expect another 50 fantasy points, Noah had an 18/15 double-double with six assists and two steals in Tuesday's overtime win at Golden State. Noah has recently mentioned that he feels as healthy as he has felt all season and he should easily reach value in an exploitable matchup against the Lakers.

C - Zaza Pachulia, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $4,600: If Ersan Ilyasova (groin) misses tonight's game, Pachulia may get a bump in minutes. (Pachulia has played roughly two minutes less over his past six games with Ilyasova in the lineup than he had in the previous 10 games without him.) Either way, he has a favorable matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Over his past 16 games, Pachulia is averaging 27.86 fantasy points, which is 6.06 times tonight's salary.

* Fantasy Basketball World Championship (FBWC): Qualify for DraftKings FBWC and spend a five-night VIP experience in Vegas culminating in a one-in-40 shot at the $1 MILLION top prize.

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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Fantasy NBA FanDuel DFS Values (Jan. 28)

Earlier today, I posted some value plays that I like on DraftKings and now I turn my attention to FanDuel.

Wednesdays always have a large slate of games and there are four $11,000-plus players on tonight's 11-game slate: Anthony Davis ($11,400), James Harden ($11,400), DeMarcus Cousins ($11,100) and LeBron James ($11,000).

In order to afford one of those high-priced studs, finding lower-priced bargains is essential. With that said, here are some FanDuel values (salaries of $7,000 or less) for Wednesday's NBA games:

View image | gettyimages.com

PG - D.J. Augustin, Detroit Pistons (at PHI), $6,000: In his second start following the season-ending Achilles injury to Brandon Jennings, Augustin followed up his 49.8-point performance with 36.3 fantasy points. Augustin had 19 points, nine assists, four rebounds and two steals against the Cavs in 36 minutes last night. While he may not score 36 fantasy points again tonight, Augustin has a favorable matchup against the Sixers.

PG - Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns (vs. WAS), $5,800: Over his past four games, Thomas has knocked down 15-of-30 three-pointers and scored at least 22 (real) points in every game. During that four-game span, Thomas has averaged 32.38 fantasy points (5.58 times tonight's salary). Even though the Wizards have one of the league's best defenses, they have been a little friendlier to opposing point guards recently by allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position over their past five games and Vegas projects the Suns to score the most points tonight. IT2 will be on a few of my FanDuel tournament lineups.

PG - Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (vs. OKC), $4,800: Signed for the rest of the season after a pair 10-day contracts, Galloway has been one of the bright spots for the Knicks. In his past four games, he has averaged 32 minutes and 28 fantasy points per game.

PG - Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. BOS), $3,700: LaVine gets a huge boost tonight with both Mo Williams (personal reasons) and Ricky Rubio out and should see 30-plus minutes at a near minimum salary. In 11 games in which he has played at least 30 minutes, LaVine has averaged 24.34 fantasy points per game.

PG - Dante Exum, Utah Jazz (vs. LAC), $3,500: The good news is that Exum should score more than he did in his last game. Of course, it'd be difficult to score less than 2.2 fantasy points. The matchup against Chris Paul and the Clippers tonight is difficult, but Exum is priced at the position-minimum salary, his ownership levels should be very low after his previous dud and he had scored at least 19.5 fantasy points in his previous two games.

* FanDuel's $400K NBA Super Slam: $400,000 in prizes including $40,000 to 1st in tonight's NBA Super Slam tourney ($25 entry).

SG - Wes Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers (at CLE), $6,000: Matthews has been really productive over his past five games. During that stretch, he has scored at least 26.6 fantasy points and averaged 29.66 per game. Matthews has a little more upside on DraftKings due to the half-point bonus for three-pointers as he's averaging four three-pointers over that stretch, but he's a solid bet to reach value tonight.

SG - Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (vs. DEN), $5,600: Over his past 11 games, Gordon has scored a minimum of 19.1 fantasy points in each game with an average of 25.83 per contest. During that stretch, he has averaged 15.36 points and 2.18 three's per game. Over their past 10 games, the Nuggets have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.

SF - Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets (at NO), $5,900: Chandler has now scored 34-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games and at least 32 fantasy points in three consecutive games. And Chandler had 30.5 fantasy points the first time this season against the Pelicans, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

SF - K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers (vs. DET), $4,600: I considered listing McDaniels in the DraftKings values post, but I like his value even more on FanDuel where he is priced $100 less. And with a higher average salary on FanDuel, that puts McDaniels' salary at 69.0 percent of the average starter salary versus 75.2 percent on DraftKings. That said, McDaniels has scored at least 28.5 fantasy points in two of his past three games and should be able to reach value tonight.

PF - Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. BOS), $6,800: Over his past seven games, Young has scored at least 32 fantasy points five times and has averaged 34.59 fantasy points per game. During that span, he's averaging 18.57 points, 6.14 rebounds, 4.71 assists and 1.43 steals per game. In addition, he has played over 40 minutes in back-to-back games.

PF - Jason Smith, New York Knicks (vs. OKC), $4,100: Playing at least 32 minutes in four consecutive games, Smith has scored more than 24 fantasy points in three of those four games. With Amar'e Stoudemire dealing with some injuries (ankle and wrist) and expected to miss some time, Smith should continue to see big minutes.

C - Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards (at PHO), $5,500: Gortat's production has underwhelmed recently and he's been a bit inconsistent as well -- less than 20 fantasy points in six of his past 16 games. That said, he has averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game over his past 12 games and I think he has an excellent shot to reach 5x his value tonight. Moreover, I'm not crazy about many of the other low-priced center options tonight.

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Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Jan. 28th)

Q: When is it a bad idea to pay up for Anthony Davis?
A: Never.

The Unibrow has scored at least 52 fantasy points in six of his past eight games including 64.5 points in his last game against the Sixers on Monday. During that eight-game span, Davis has averaged 28.88 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.75 steals per game.

With a matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, it's going to be risky to fade Davis ($11,000), who is priced higher than all players not named James Harden ($11,100).

To make matters more interesting, however, power forward has as much value as any other position tonight.

View image | gettyimages.com

With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Wednesday's NBA games:

PG - Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets (at ATL), $6,000: With Deron Williams out again, Jack should see 34-plus minutes and he has scored at least 34.5 fantasy points in four of his past five games. Over that five-game span, Jack has scored 17.4 points with 6.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. The Hawks are one of the best defensive teams in the league, but they have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

PG - D.J. Augustin, Detroit Pistons (at PHI), $5,800: In his second start following the season-ending injury to Brandon Jennings, Augustin followed up his 53.5-point performance with 40.5 fantasy points. Augustin had 19 points, nine assists, four rebounds and two steals against the Cavs in 36 minutes last night. While we shouldn't expect 40-plus points from him on a nightly basis, Augustin has a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Take advantage of his depressed price tag while you can.

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PG - Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (vs. OKC), $4,300: Signed for the rest of the season after back-to-back 10-day contracts, Galloway has been one of the bright spots for the Knicks. In his past four games, he has averaged 32 minutes and nearly 30 fantasy points (29.69) per game.

PG - Brian Roberts, Charlotte Bobcats (at SA), $4,200: With Kemba Walker scheduled to have knee surgery on Wednesday, Roberts will run the point for the foreseeable future, but the best thing about him is his price. On the season, he is averaging only 0.66 fantasy points per minute, but the uptick in minutes due to his role should allow him to reach value.

[Update: Mo Williams has been ruled out for personal reasons, which means Zach LaVine gets the start with a $3,000 price tag and should see 30-plus minutes. As I noted in my FanDuel values post, LaVine has played 30-plus minutes in 11 games. In those games, he has scored at least 20 fantasy points 10 times and averaged 26.8 per game.]

SG - DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors (vs. SAC), $6,500: DeRozan continues to shake the rust off as he has scored at least 24 (real) points and 36.5 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The good times should continue to roll for DeRozan as the Kings have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

SG - Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers (at CLE), $6,100: Matthews has been really productive over his past five games. During that stretch, he has scored at least 28.75 fantasy points and averaged 32.25 per game. Averaging four three-pointers over that stretch, Matthews has averaged 20.2 points and 1.6 steals per game.

SG - Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks (vs. BKN), $4,800: Priced at 5.31 times his full-season production (25.5 fantasy points per game), Korver is a deadly outside shooter (and occasional high riser). Given the inconsistent nature of his game log, however, Korver is a better suited as a tournament play.

SG - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons (at PHI), $4,100: Of the shooting guards in action tonight that average at least 23 minutes per game, only Ben McLemore (0.54) averages fewer fantasy points per minute than Caldwell-Pope (0.59). That said, KCP gets nearly 32 minutes per game and a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position.

SF - Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets (at NO), $6,000: Chandler has now scored 38-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games and at least 33 fantasy points in three consecutive games. And Wilson had just shy of 33 fantasy points (32.8) the first time he played the Pelicans this season. The Pelicans have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

SF - Paul Pierce, Washington Wizards (at PHO), $4,700: Pierce (toe) sat out last night's game against the Lakers, but if he plays against the Suns tonight, he is one of my favorite values at small forward. Pierce has played at least 30 minutes and scored a minimum of 28.75 fantasy points in each of his past three games played. Meanwhile, the Suns have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. Since this game has a 10:30 start, we may not know his status prior to 7 PM, but you can pivot to P.J. Tucker ($4,100), if necessary, thanks to DraftKings' late-swap feature.

PF - Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. BOS), $6,400: Over his past seven games, Young has scored at least 30 fantasy points six times and has averaged 35.82 fantasy points per game. During that span, he's averaging 18.57 points, 6.14 rebounds, 4.71 assists and 1.43 steals per game. In addition, he has played over 40 minutes in back-to-back games.

PF - Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (at HOU), $6,400: Last night, Nowitzki had a 17-game low in fantasy points (25.25). While his ceiling isn't what it once was, Nowitzki has a 25-point floor and needs 32 fantasy points to reach 5x value. During that 17-game span, he has averaged 31.38 fantasy points per game.

PF - Brandon Bass, Boston Celtics (at MIN), $4,900: Even as his price creeps up, Bass remains a solid value option at the position. Bass has scored a minimum of 22 fantasy points in six consecutive games and the T'Wolves have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.

PF - Jason Smith, New York Knicks (vs. OKC), $3,900: Playing at least 32 minutes in four consecutive games, Smith has scored more than 25 fantasy points in three of those four games. With Amar'e Stoudemire dealing with some injuries (ankle and wrist) and expected to miss some time, Smith should continue to see big minutes despite his sub-$4,000 price tag.

C - Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards (at PHO), $5,500: Gortat's production has underwhelmed recently and he's been a bit inconsistent as well -- less than 20 fantasy points in five of his past 16 games. That said, he has averaged more than 25 fantasy points per game over his past 12 games and I think he has an excellent shot to reach 5x his value tonight. Moreover, I'm not crazy about many of the other low-priced center options tonight.

C - Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. BOS), $4,900: Pekovic has now played 30-plus minutes in back-to-back games although he has averaged roughly 20 fantasy points in those two games. Pek gets a more favorable matchup tonight against the Celtics, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

[Note: Al Jefferson is priced slightly higher than my cutoff at $6,700, but he's going to start tonight and is probably my favorite play at center tonight.]

* Fantasy Basketball World Championship (FBWC): Qualify for DraftKings FBWC and spend a five-night VIP experience in Vegas culminating in a one-in-40 shot at the $1 MILLION top prize.

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Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Fantasy NBA FanDuel DFS Values (Jan. 27)

Earlier today, I posted some value plays that I like on DraftKings and now I turn my attention to FanDuel.

While both sites create their salaries independently of each other, there will always be plenty of overlap as recent and expected production and matchups drive the majority of my recommendations.

View image | gettyimages.com

With that said, here are some FanDuel values (salaries of $7,000 or less) for Tuesday's NBA games:

PG - Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls (at GS), $7,000: On a night with six games, there are seven point guards with a higher price than D-Rose. Rose has scored less than 30 fantasy points in three of his past four games, but he has averaged slightly more than 35 FanDuel points (35.08) over his past eight games. Over that eight-game span, Rose is averaging 22.63 points, 5.75 assists and steal in nearly 33 minutes per game.

PG - D.J. Augustin, Detroit Pistons (vs. CLE), $6,000: In his first start since Brandon Jennings (Achilles) was lost for the season, Augustin scored 35 points with eight assists and finished with 49.8 fantasy points. Duplicating Sunday's numbers is unrealistic, but Augustin gets a decent matchup against Kyrie Irving and should be able to score 30 fantasy points to reach 5x value.

PG - Beno Udrih, Memphis Grizzlies (at DAL), $3,900: Depending on the status of Mike Conley, who is questionable with a wrist injury, Udrih could see expanded minutes. Against the Magic last night, Udrih scored 31.9 fantasy points with 15 points, five assists and four steals. Since this game doesn't tip off until 8:30 PM, it's possible that we won't have a definitive answer on Conley's status before the 7 PM lineup lock.

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SG - Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (at LAL), $6,000: More of a tournament play based on his inconsistency, Beal has 40-point upside in a plus matchup against the Lakers. Even with Kobe Bryant, the Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league, but the Wizards are only eight-point favorites tonight as one of the potential concerns with Beal is that this game turns into a blowout and he sits the fourth quarter.

SG - Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. WAS), $3,500: Clarkson has actually started at point guard in each of the past two games and the combo guard should continue to get the start at the point. Clarkson has played 29 and 27 minutes in those starts, respectively. While the production has left a lot to be desired in those two starts, punting at shooting guard with a minimum-salary player starting at point guard isn't necessarily a bad idea.

SF - Paul Pierce, Washington Wizards (at LAL), $5,100: Pierce has played at least 30 minutes and scored a minimum of 27.1 fantasy points in each of his past three games. While he lacks upside, Pierce should be able to reach value in a favorable matchup against the Lakers.

SF - James Ennis, Miami Heat (vs. MIL), $3,600: Luol Deng would have been one of my favorite plays at small forward, but he missed shoutaround and is doubtful with a sore calf. In the last game that Deng missed (Jan. 21st), Ennis (28 minutes, 20.4 FanDuel points) played more minutes and was more productive than Danny Granger (20 minutes, 8.2 FD points) and is a solid value play.

PF - Nene Hilario, Washington Wizards (at LAL), $5,700: Over his past five games, he has averaged 28.8 fantasy points per game, which would put him above 5x salary for tonight. Nene has averaged a robust 1.04 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. In addition, the Lakers rank in the bottom 10 in the league in rebounding differential.

C - Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat (vs. MIL), $6,000: Playing 25 minutes off the bench on Sunday, Whiteside did maximum damage with his allotment of minutes by posting the rare triple-double with blocked shots. In his past eight games, Whiteside has played at least 24 minutes in four games and he has a double-double (or a triple-double) in all four of those games.

C - Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers (at DET), $5,100: Before Sunday's modest performance (two points, six rebounds), Mozgov had three consecutive double-doubles with at least 27 fantasy points in each game. Meanwhile, the Pistons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing centers over the past three weeks based on stats from Rotogrinders.

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Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Jan. 27th)

In order to afford high-priced players like LeBron James ($10,600) and Stephen Curry ($10,000), you'll need to find some low(er)-priced values to stay within the $50,000 salary cap ($6,250 per player).

View image | gettyimages.com

With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Tuesday's NBA games:

PG - D.J. Augustin, Milwaukee Bucks (vs. CLE), $5,800: In his first start since Brandon Jennings was lost for the season with a torn Achilles, Augustin scored 35 (real) points with eight assists and finished with 53.5 fantasy points. Duplicating Sunday's numbers tonight would be unrealistic expectations, but Augustin gets a decent matchup against Kyrie Irving and needs just 29 points to reach 5x value.

PG - Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. WAS), $3,700: Getting the start at point guard, Clarkson's production has been modest (20.25 and 10.5 fantasy points, respectively) in his two starts. Getting close to 30 minutes in each outing, however, Clarkson is at least worth a look as a punt option.

PG - Beno Udrih, Memphis Grizzlies (at DAL), $3,500: Depending on the status of Mike Conley, who is questionable with a wrist injury, Udrih could see expanded minutes. Against the Magic last night, Udrih scored 33 fantasy points with 15 points, five assists and four steals in 26 minutes. The Mavs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

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SG - J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers (at DET), $5,000: Even with Iman Shumpert making his Cavs debut, he has only played 23 minutes in his first two games with the Cavs. Meanwhile, Smith has scored 30.46 fantasy points per game over his past seven games with 17.29 points, 4.29 three-pointers and 1.71 steals per game during that stretch. In addition, the Pistons have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing two guards.

SG - O.J. Mayo, Milwaukee Bucks (at MIA), $4,300: Although Mayo hasn't started since Christmas, he has been productive off the bench. In his past eight games, Mayo has averaged 25.97 fantasy points per game (6.03 times tonight's salary) with a minimum of 21.5 (5.0 times tonight's salary). During that span, he has averaged 14.38 points, 2.25 three's and 3.5 assists per game.

SG - Wayne Ellington, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. WAS), $3,900: With Kobe Bryant out of the season, Ellington has now scored at least 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games. His ceiling is relatively low, especially considering the Wizards allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, but Ellington has a good chance to reach value (5x his salary). In addition, there is a good chance that Nick Young (sprained ankle) sits this one out. If he does play, however, here's Swaggy P's thoughts on what the Lakers should do:

Nick Young on what Lakers need to do w/o Kobe: "Pretty much just give me the ball and get out of the way." He laughed as he walked away
— janis carr (@janiscarr) January 26, 2015

SF - Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (at MIA), $4,900: Luol Deng was one of my favorite value plays tonight, but he's considered doubtful with a sore calf so I'm going with another SF from this game. It's difficult to fully trust Middleton, or any Bucks players with Jason Kidd at the helm, but Middleton has scored 33.25 and 37.25 fantasy points in his past two games, respectively. And before that, Middleton scored at least 21 fantasy points in nine of 10 games.

SF - Paul Pierce, Washington Wizards (at LAL), $4,700: Pierce has played at least 30 minutes and scored a minimum of 28.75 fantasy points in each of his past three games. Meanwhile, the Lakers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Pierce needs just 23.5 fantasy points to reach 5x value and should easily be able to do so.

PF - Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (vs. MEM), $6,400: Playing fewer minutes than he had for the majority of his career, Nowitzki lacks the upside against one of the best team defenses in the league. That said, Nowitzki has been remarkably consistent with at least 26 fantasy points in 16 consecutive games and an average of 31.77 over that stretch.

PF - Nene Hilario, Washington Wizards (at LAL), $5,400: Nene has an exploitable matchup as the Lakers have allowed eighth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. Over his past five games, he has averaged more than 30 fantasy points (30.15) per game.

C - Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors (at IND), $5,900: More of a tournament play due to his inconsistency, Valanciunas (easy for Barkley to say) now has three double-doubles in his past four games including 20/11 against the Pistons on Sunday. (Too bad he can't play Detroit every day as he had a 31/12 double-double against them on Jan. 12th as well.) That said, the Pacers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

C - Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat (vs. MIL), $5,800: Playing 25 minutes off the bench on Sunday, Whiteside did maximum damage with his allotment of minutes by posting the rare triple-double with blocked shots. In his past eight games, Whiteside has played at least 24 minutes in four games and he has a double-double (or a triple-double) in all four of those games. The only drawback with him tonight will be his extremely high ownership levels.

C - Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors (vs. CHI), $4,700: Bogut now has at least 34 fantasy points in two of his past three games and he gets a nice matchup against the Bulls, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Even though Bogut gets much of his fantasy points from rebounds and blocks, the Warriors are projected to score the most points in tonight's six-game slate.

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Monday, January 26, 2015

2014-15 NBA Power Rankings Week 14

The surprise season for the Atlanta Hawks as this highlight shows continues ...

Here are my NBA Power Rankings heading into Week 14:

1. Atlanta Hawks (Record 37-8, Last Week 1): The HAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWKS have now won 16 games in a row.

2. Golden State Warriors (Record 36-6, Last Week 2): Not only did Klay Thompson score 52 points against the Kings last week, but he scored 37 points in the third quarter alone.

3. Memphis Grizzlies (Record 31-12, Last Week 4): After a multi-game absence, Zach Randolph now has eight double-doubles in a row and he has 34 double-doubles on the season.

4. Portland Trail Blazers (Record 32-13, Last Week 3): Instead of missing the next six to eight weeks, LaMarcus Aldridge surprised many by opting to postpone surgery and scored 26 points against the Wizards on Saturday.

5. San Antonio Spurs (Record 29-17, Last Week 10): Kawhi Leonard has three double-doubles with multiple steals in his past four games. He had six double-doubles in his first 24 games of the season.

6. Los Angeles Clippers (Record 30-14, Last Week 11): The Clippers have scored 120-plus points in five of 11 games this month and are averaging 113.8 points over their past six games.

7. Houston Rockets (Record 31-14, Last Week 5): Leading the NBA in Win Shares (9.8) and Value Over Replacement (8.1), James Harden has scored 33-plus points in four consecutive games, the first time in his career that he has done so.

8. Washington Wizards (Record 30-15, Last Week 6): Point guard John Wall is averaging more than 10 assists and two steals per game; Chris Paul (four times) and Rajon Rondo (once) are the only other active players to do that for a season.

9. Cleveland Cavaliers (Record 25-20, Last Week 12): Since returning from his knee injury, LeBron James has averaged 30.28 points, 6.86 rebounds, 6.29 assists and 2.14 steals per game as the Cavs have won six of seven games.

10. Chicago Bulls (Record 29-17, Last Week 7): No longer on a minutes restriction, Derrick Rose has averaged 22.63 points, 5.75 assists and a steal per game over his last eight games.

11. Toronto Raptors (Record 29-15, Last Week 8): After scoring zero, six and eight points in his previous three games, DeMar DeRozan broke out of his scoring slump with 25 points on 8-of-14 shooting on Sunday. (He was 6-of-34 in his previous three games.)

12. Dallas Mavericks (Record 30-15, Last Week 9): Not only is Tyson Chandler shooting 66.9 percent from the field (second-highest of his career), but he is shooting a career-high 74.3 percent from the line. Chandler ranks second in the NBA in true shooting percentage behind only Kyle Korver.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (Record 22-22, Last Week 13): Over the past eight games, Russell Westbrook has four double-doubles and a triple-double. In those eight games, he's averaging 21.25 points, 9.88 assists, 7.25 rebounds and 2.88 steals per game.

14. Phoenix Suns (Record 26-20, Last Week 14): Currently sitting in the 8th seed in the West, the Suns have a brutal schedule before the All-Star break. Their next five games: Washington (30-15), Chicago (29-17), Golden State (36-6), Memphis (31-12) and Portland (32-13).

15. New Orleans Pelicans (Record 23-21, Last Week 16): In his past 10 games, Eric Gordon has connected on nearly half of his three-point attempts (22 of 47, 46.8 percent).

16. Charlotte Hornets (Record 19-26, Last Week 20): As badly as the Hornets began the season, they have now won nine of their past 11 games.

17. Milwaukee Bucks (Record 22-22, Last Week 15): The Bucks have the league's worst turnover ratio (18.7 per game) in January and they have been even worse in the fourth quarter (20.3) this month. (On the season, the ratio was 15.8 in Q4 for the Bucks.)

18. Detroit Pistons (Record 17-28, Last Week 17): The loss of Brandon Jennings (Achilles) for the season is a big loss, but D.J. Augustin stepped up with a career-high 35 points in his first start following Jennings' injury.

19. Miami Heat (Record 20-24, Last Week 19): Hassan Whiteside had the most impressive triple-double of the season on Sunday with 14 points, 13 rebounds and 12 blocked shots in 25 minutes off the bench.

20. Brooklyn Nets (Record 18-26, Last Week 21): Based on some reports, the Nets could soon unload Joe Johnson's contract in exchange for a package of players that includes Lance Stephenson, who went to Lincoln High School in Brooklyn.

21. Indiana Pacers (Record 16-30, Last Week 23): Not exactly Thompson's 37-point third-quarter performance, but Damjan Rudez scored 16 of his 18 points in the fourth quarter as the Pacers ended a seven-game losing streak with a win over the Magic on Sunday.

22. Denver Nuggets (Record 18-26, Last Week 18): After a five-game winning streak earlier in the month, the Nuggets have lost six consecutive games and will face the Clippers, Pelicans and Grizzlies on the road in their next three games.

23. Sacramento Kings (Record 16-27, Last Week 22): Since their surprise 9-5 start, the Kings have lost 22 of 29 games including their past six games in a row.

24. Orlando Magic (Record 15-32, Last Week 24): Rookie point guard Elfrid Payton has been playing great basketball. Over his past seven games, he has averaged 13.29 points, 8.29 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 2.14 steals per game .

25. Utah Jazz (Record 16-28, Last Week 25): Rudy Gobert ranks third in the NBA in blocks per game (2.2), but he leads the league in block percentage (7.9) by far over Anthony Davis (6.1).

26. Boston Celtics (Record 15-27, Last Week 26): Being showcased for a potential trade, Brandon Bass has averaged 12.67 points and 9.33 rebounds per game over his past three games.

27. Philadelphia 76ers (Record 8-36, Last Week 28): Even though the Sixers don't have the league's worst record, they rank last in the league in net rating (-12.1). (Net rating is difference between Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating -- essentially a scoring margin per 100 possessions.)

28. Los Angeles Lakers (Record 12-33, Last Week 27): The glass-half-full view of Kobe Bryant (torn rotator cuff) missing the rest of the season is the Lakers have a stronger shot of keeping their first-round pick (it goes to Phoenix if outside the top-five picks).

29. New York Knicks (Record 8-37, Last Week 30): In their most recent game, three of the Knicks starters were on 10-day contracts including Langston Galloway, who has averaged 14.5 points and 6.25 rebounds as a starter.

30. Minnesota Timberwolves (Record 7-36, Last Week 29): As bad as the T'Wolves have been, Nikola Pekovic (12 games), Kevin Martin (nine) and Ricky Rubio (five) have played a combined 26 games. Pekovic has returned to the lineup and K-Mart and Rubio should be back soon.

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