Daily Fantasy Basketball: FanDuel Values for March 4th

If you play daily fantasy sports (and who doesn't these days?!), you know that one of the keys to success is uncovering undervalued players to allow you to load up on studs elsewhere.

In case you've never played daily fantasy basketball, every player has a salary and your roster cannot exceed the game's salary-cap maximum.

For FanDuel leagues, rosters consist of nine players and the salary cap is $60,000, which averages to roughly $6,667 per player. To give you an idea of the range for Tuesday's games, Thunder SF Kevin Durant ($11,900) has the contest's highest salary while many are tied for the lowest at the game-minimum salary ($3,500).

There are a number of benefits compared to traditional full-season re-draft leagues, such as:

• you don't have to worry about being saddled by players sidelined by injury;
• having a late pick doesn't rule out owning studs like Kevin Durant or LeBron James;
• you get the instant gratification of winning your league(s) that night.

And you know that enthusiasm you have after drafting your fantasy team(s)? Well, you get to experience that feeling on a nightly basis with daily fantasy basketball.

OK, with the preliminary stuff out of the way, here are some value plays to consider for Tuesday (March 4th) FanDuel leagues:

PG - Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (vs. PHI), $7,400: While there is the potential that Westbrook, Durant, etc. sit in the fourth quarter of a potential blowout (as Sean noted in his DraftStreet post), Westbrook's salary ($7,400) as a stud point guard is still more than $2,000 less than that of Chris Paul ($9,600). Even in 25 minutes (like against the Bobcats on Sunday), Westbrook can still score 35 fantasy points. Against the league's worst defense, three quarters of Westbrook may be more than enough.

PG - Ishmael Smith, Phoenix Suns (vs. LAC), $4,600: In his past four games, Smith has averaged 27.68 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, Smith has averaged 9.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.25 assists and 2.5 steals per game.

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SG - Tyreke Evans, New Orleans Pelicans (at LAL), $5,400: Evans appeared on my FanDuel list yesterday and he delivered for DFS owners that started him by dropping 50 fantasy points. Against the Kings, his former team, Evans was only two assists shy of a triple-double with 27 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Evans is a must-start against the Lakers, who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

SG - Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs (at CLE), $4,700: Despite playing less than 30 minutes in each game, Ginobili has averaged 29.5 fantasy points per game over his last three games. During that stretch, Ginobili has averaged 15.3 points, 7.0 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 block per game.

SG - Kent Bazemore, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. NOP), $4,400: Although Bazemore has played in only 28 and 27 minutes in his past two games, his two lowest since joining the Lakers, he has scored 20-plus fantasy points in four consecutive games and in five of his six as a Laker.

SG - Ray Allen, Miami Heat (at HOU), $3,500: Provided that Dwyane Wade sits out another game, Allen is a solid option at the contest-minimum salary. The Rockets have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.

SF - Wesley Johnson, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. NOP), $4,900: Against the Blazers yesterday, Johnson extended his streak of games with 36-plus minutes and 33-plus fantasy points to three games. During that stretch, he has averaged 14.67 points, 8.0 boards, 3.0 assists, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 steal per game.

SF - Caron Butler, Oklahoma City Thunder (vs. PHI), $4,700: Butler will make his Thunder debut on Tuesday and he gets an extremely favorable matchup against the Sixers. With Thabo Sefolosha (calf) out for the next month or so, Butler could start. Either way, he should get plenty of minutes in his debut.

PF - Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns (vs. LAC), $6,000: Morris has scored more than 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games and in five of his past six. Only six teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season than the Clips.

PF - Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. SAS), $5,900: Thompson has seven double-doubles in his past 10 games and he missed a double-double in two of those games by only one rebound. Thompson is averaging 15.3 points, 11.5 rebounds and 31.1 fantasy points in his past 10 games.

C - Alexis Ajinca, New Orleans Pelicans (at LAL), $4,200: Ajinca had a dud against the Kings in his last outing, but he has scored 29-plus fantasy points in three of his past five games and has a pair of double-doubles during that span. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers so Ajinca may bounce back nicely at a very modest cost.

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NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs (Trifone)

I had both winners of the Conference Finals, picking the Spurs and Heat to advance, but I had the quality of the series' flip-flopped.  San Antonio was the better team in all four games against the Grizz, a series I expected to be much tighter than it was.  The Heat, on the other hand, struggled much more than expected; not because the Pacers aren't a good team, but because the Heat had just been on another level.  Not only did they rattle of 27 wins in a row earlier in the year, but they were 8-1 in the playoffs going into the series, and seemed poised for another championship run.  Roy Hibbert, Paul George, and David West proved to be a pretty formidable Big Three, but ultimately, the Heat were able to dispatch of them in a lopsided Game Seven in Miami.

Much has been made of the long layoff that San Antonio has had between sweeping Memphis, and Game 1 of the NBA Finals coming up on June 6th.  Personally, I think the Spurs are a team that the rest will greatly benefit.  Last year, the Spurs were playing tremendous basketball, and I still have no idea what happened for them to lose four consecutive games to Oklahoma City.  This year, the Spurs did not have the same steam coming in to the playoffs, but they have clearly been the best in the West, and earned their trip to the Finals.  Tim Duncan seems to have found the fountain of youth, and at 37 is playing just about as well as he ever has, which is certainly saying something, considering he is thought of by most to be the best power forward in NBA history.  Tony Parker is also back to the MVP form from early in the year.  For the Spurs, this will be their fifth Finals appearance in the Duncan-Poppovich era.  They won all four previous trips, with the most recent title coming against LeBron James and the Cavs.

The Heat have been the team with a target on their backs the entire year.  They are the defending NBA Champions, and have had to take everyone's best shot all year long.  Although they have had lingering injuries, specifically Dwyane Wade, for much of the year, and an aging cast of shooters who did not really show up in the Eastern Conference Finals, Miami found a way to get back for the third consecutive year.  Since joining the Heat, LeBron is 3/3 in Finals appearances, and could become a champion for the second year in a row.

In many ways, this series is a referendum on LeBron's place in history.  Many analyst's have defended LeBron, saying that his supporting cast has been as bad, if not worse, than the one he had in Cleveland.  History, however, is not going to remember that supporting cast in the same way.  As good as Wade, Chris Bosh, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, etc. have been, none of them are going to be compared to the elite of the elite, and talked about in the discussion for the GOAT.  For LeBron, however, not getting a ring, for ANY reason, is going to be in paragraph one of his bio when all is said and done for him.

I think this has the makings of a fantastic series, and it's a matchup we really haven't seen.  In the two games that the Spurs and Heat played this year, San Antonio rested all their big guns in Miami, and the Heat did the same thing on the road at San Antonio.  I'm expecting a back-and-forth series, but I think that ultimately, LeBron and Miami will be up to "not two" as far as championships go.  The Pacers defense exposed some of the Heat's flaws, but they were still able to make adjustments and advance.  I don't see the role players like Allen and Battier to be as bad as they were against Indiana, and D-Wade showed us in Game 7 that he still has something left in the tank.  Bosh was mentally defeated by West and Hibbert, but will get a fresh start against Duncan and the Spurs.  It is going to be another tall task, but I think he will fare better.

And at the end of the day, the Heat have a weapon that no team in the league has.  LeBron is as intelligent of a player as there is in the league, and his ability to  be either Magic or Michael, depending on what the team needs, gives them an advantage that is tough to counter.  If anyone can figure out a way to stop him, it's Pop, and I'm looking forward to the coaching matchup as much as anything else.  But at the end of the day, I'll take LeBron and the Heat in 6.

Prediction: Miami Heat in 6 Games

[Note: This post is from John Trifone.  See his other basketball posts here and/or follow him on Twitter @JohnnyT0122.]

NBA Finals Preseason Predictions for the 2012-13 Season

Earlier in the week, Kyle Baillargeon made his preseason predictions with final regular-season records for all 30 NBA teams.

[His team-by-team predictions here: Eastern Conference - Western Conference]

Of course, "winning" the regular season doesn't mean much unless you parlay that home-court advantage into a title.

With that said, Kyle makes his predictions for the conference and NBA Finals below:

Eastern Conference Finals: Boston over Miami in six games

The Heat can expect to be back in the finals for many years to come, and will likely win at least a few more, so long as LeBron is still there.  But the retooled Boston Celtics will put that dynasty on hold for the 2012-2013 season.  This Celtics team is on a mission to win.  More importantly though, this is the most complete Celtics team since the 07-08 squad.  The Heat still have Lebron, Wade, and Bosh, and they did add Ray Allen, but once again, depth is a question mark.  The Celtics' deep rotation will keep coming at the Heat, and eventually wear them down and take it in six games.

Western Conference Finals: LA Lakers over San Antonio in five games

The Spurs will have run out of gas by the time they face Dwight Howard and the Lakers.  This year should be the final stand for San Antonio, but the Lakers will not be stopped in the West.  Steve Nash's playmaking will prove to be too much, and Kobe Bryant is still Kobe Bryant.  But the key to this Lakers team will be Howard.  Assuming his back does not hinder him in any way, he and Pau Gasol should dominate the front court.  The Lakers will win this going away. 

NBA Finals: LA Lakers over Boston in seven games

This pains me to admit, but the Celtics likely won't be able to stop the Lakers.  Though Boston still has Kevin Garnett, and they did add a glut of seven-footers, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard are just too much for any front court.  Steve Nash may not be able to keep up with Rondo at this stage, and that may be Boston's best hope of winning the Finals.  Either way, expect a classic seven-game series in June 2013.

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Eastern Conference Preseason Predictions for the 2012-13 NBA Season

With NBA training camps opening up, it's time for preseason predictions.  Kyle Baillargeon takes a team-by-team look into his crystal ball of all 30 NBA teams.

Here is how Kyle sees the Eastern Conference playing out:

1. Miami Heat - 64-18

The champs are back and they brought Ray Allen with them for this round.  Allen will find himself open far more often than he did last year, and he'll make the most of it.  Miami may even make a run for 70.

2. Boston Celtics - 61-21

Retooled and reloaded, the Celtics have been seemingly at the end of their run for the last three years. But they keeping coming back, ready to contend. This squad is bigger up front and could have the best four-guard rotation in the league.

3. Philadelphia 76ers - 50-32

Adding Bynum is huge for Philly, so long as he stays healthy.  Will the team miss Iguodala, though?  If Evan Turner plays to his potential, then the answer to that question is no.

4. Indiana Pacers - 48-34

With more teams going small at the center position, Roy Hibbert is somewhat of an anomaly.  The Pacers were built to succeed in a short season, but how will this team fare over 82 games?

5. Milwaukee Bucks - 44-38

The dropoff is steep in the Eastern Conference, and this number of wins says more about how bad the rest of the conference is as opposed to how good the Bucks are. Jennings, Ellis and crew should have no problem making the playoffs, where they'll hope to make some noise.

6. Brooklyn Nets - 41-41

A tough team to determine, considering the general overhaul.  Deron Williams and Joe Johnson is one of the strongest backcourts in the game.  And don't underestimate how the move to Brooklyn could positively effect the team's psyche.

7. Chicago Bulls - 40-42

It's going to be a long year for the Bulls, though they did play decently for stretches without Rose last year.  The team is not completely devoid of talent, but they just can't expect to contend without their star.  Rose may be ready sometime after the All-Star break, but the Bulls may be better off tanking the season and hoping for a high pick.

8. Atlanta Hawks - 40-42

The Hawks are in a quasi-rebuilding mode, as they still have enough talent to sneak into the playoffs.  However, if they start to slide downhill in the middle of the season, don't be surprised to see Josh Smith on his way out sooner rather than later.

9. Cleveland Cavaliers - 36-46

Irving is the real deal, and this team could surprise people in the east.  They'll definitely be an exciting team, which is all you can ask for right now in Cleveland.

10. Toronto Raptors - 35-47

Valanciunas was considered by many as one of the top prospects out of his draft, and now he gets to show Toronto what they waited for. There's not a whole lot else to be excited for in Toronto, as it seems as though they based their entire offseason on trying to get, and subsequently failing to get, Steve Nash.

11. New York Knicks - 35-47

It's tough to make heads or tails of what the Knicks are trying to accomplish.  Carmelo and Amare don't seem to work entirely well together.  Jason Kidd would have been a great addition if he were five years younger.  Meanwhile, Rasheed Wallace should be a wonderful influence on whatever young players the Knicks have.

12. Detroit Pistons - 33-49

Detroit may have themselves a bright future, but they'll have to make sure they don't waste their cap space after this season like they did a few years ago.  In a perfect world, everyone will stay healthy, they'll show some signs of real potential, and they'll get a high pick.

13. Washington Wizards - 33-49

John Wall is not Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving, but he is still ultra talented.  This is his team, and he needs to raise his game.  If he does, then he and Bradley Beal could make for a great young backcourt.

14. Charlotte Bobcats - 25-57

The Bobcats did a great job of not screwing up their pick this year, and MKG is a great talent.  Kemba Walker has the keys to the squad now, and he can definitely make things happen on occasion.  This team is still a ways away, but hopefully their front office will make it a streak of good draft picks next year.

15. Orlando Magic - 13-69

Not many good things to say about Orlando.  They didn't get much for the best center in the league.  They would have been smart to stick with Van Gundy, however.

Later today, we will post Kyle's predictions for the Western Conference.

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