NBA Finals Prediction: Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs (Trifone)

I had both winners of the Conference Finals, picking the Spurs and Heat to advance, but I had the quality of the series' flip-flopped.  San Antonio was the better team in all four games against the Grizz, a series I expected to be much tighter than it was.  The Heat, on the other hand, struggled much more than expected; not because the Pacers aren't a good team, but because the Heat had just been on another level.  Not only did they rattle of 27 wins in a row earlier in the year, but they were 8-1 in the playoffs going into the series, and seemed poised for another championship run.  Roy Hibbert, Paul George, and David West proved to be a pretty formidable Big Three, but ultimately, the Heat were able to dispatch of them in a lopsided Game Seven in Miami.

Much has been made of the long layoff that San Antonio has had between sweeping Memphis, and Game 1 of the NBA Finals coming up on June 6th.  Personally, I think the Spurs are a team that the rest will greatly benefit.  Last year, the Spurs were playing tremendous basketball, and I still have no idea what happened for them to lose four consecutive games to Oklahoma City.  This year, the Spurs did not have the same steam coming in to the playoffs, but they have clearly been the best in the West, and earned their trip to the Finals.  Tim Duncan seems to have found the fountain of youth, and at 37 is playing just about as well as he ever has, which is certainly saying something, considering he is thought of by most to be the best power forward in NBA history.  Tony Parker is also back to the MVP form from early in the year.  For the Spurs, this will be their fifth Finals appearance in the Duncan-Poppovich era.  They won all four previous trips, with the most recent title coming against LeBron James and the Cavs.

The Heat have been the team with a target on their backs the entire year.  They are the defending NBA Champions, and have had to take everyone's best shot all year long.  Although they have had lingering injuries, specifically Dwyane Wade, for much of the year, and an aging cast of shooters who did not really show up in the Eastern Conference Finals, Miami found a way to get back for the third consecutive year.  Since joining the Heat, LeBron is 3/3 in Finals appearances, and could become a champion for the second year in a row.

In many ways, this series is a referendum on LeBron's place in history.  Many analyst's have defended LeBron, saying that his supporting cast has been as bad, if not worse, than the one he had in Cleveland.  History, however, is not going to remember that supporting cast in the same way.  As good as Wade, Chris Bosh, Ray Allen, Shane Battier, etc. have been, none of them are going to be compared to the elite of the elite, and talked about in the discussion for the GOAT.  For LeBron, however, not getting a ring, for ANY reason, is going to be in paragraph one of his bio when all is said and done for him.

I think this has the makings of a fantastic series, and it's a matchup we really haven't seen.  In the two games that the Spurs and Heat played this year, San Antonio rested all their big guns in Miami, and the Heat did the same thing on the road at San Antonio.  I'm expecting a back-and-forth series, but I think that ultimately, LeBron and Miami will be up to "not two" as far as championships go.  The Pacers defense exposed some of the Heat's flaws, but they were still able to make adjustments and advance.  I don't see the role players like Allen and Battier to be as bad as they were against Indiana, and D-Wade showed us in Game 7 that he still has something left in the tank.  Bosh was mentally defeated by West and Hibbert, but will get a fresh start against Duncan and the Spurs.  It is going to be another tall task, but I think he will fare better.

And at the end of the day, the Heat have a weapon that no team in the league has.  LeBron is as intelligent of a player as there is in the league, and his ability to  be either Magic or Michael, depending on what the team needs, gives them an advantage that is tough to counter.  If anyone can figure out a way to stop him, it's Pop, and I'm looking forward to the coaching matchup as much as anything else.  But at the end of the day, I'll take LeBron and the Heat in 6.

Prediction: Miami Heat in 6 Games

[Note: This post is from John Trifone.  See his other basketball posts here and/or follow him on Twitter @JohnnyT0122.]

Eastern Conference Finals Prediction: Heat vs. Pacers (Trifone)

The Miami Heat are playing as well as anybody right now, and were able to close out the Bulls in four consecutive games, after Chicago's Game 1 upset.  Dwyane Wade has been awful for the most part, although he came on and had a few key plays in the close-out game of the Semi-Final round.  Chris Bosh has picked up the slack , and Norris Cole, among others, has also been a big contributor.

The Pacers fell off everyone's radar, closing the regular season in very mediocre fashion.  They came to play in the playoffs, though, and were clearly the better team against the Knicks.  Paul George and Roy Hibbert have been key factors in Indiana's success, but I think David West may be the toughest matchup in the upcoming series against Miami.

Indiana can, and likely will, win the rebounding matchup, but I don't think they're going to have enough to win the series.

LeBron James had a tough series against Chicago, a team that usually gives him some trouble.  Still, he managed to put up solid numbers, and put his team in a position to win each game.  I expect LeBron to be great in the Conference Finals, and Miami to advance to the NBA Finals in a series that is not as interesting as the Spurs/Grizzlies (see my prediction for that series here).  The Pacers are a tough team, but they're not on the same level as the Heat.  I like Miami in five.

Series Prediction: Heat in 5 Games

[Note: This post is from John Trifone.  See his other basketball posts here and/or follow him on Twitter @JohnnyT0122.]

Western Conference Finals Prediction: Spurs vs. Grizzlies (Trifone)

I have absolutely no idea who is going to come out of the West.  I typically have a pretty strong opinion on who I feel is going to come out of a given matchup, but these two teams are as evenly matched as they come.  Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have been dominant in the playoffs, exposing a flawed Oklahoma City Thunder team.  Clearly, Russell Westbrook has meant more to that team than people may have thought, because when asked to carry the load on his own, Kevin Durant fell short of where we had become accustomed to seeing him succeed.

As for the Spurs, they are a tough team to predict.  Last year, they were playing close to perfect basketball, and rolling through the playoffs, only to go cold and lose four straight games to OKC.  This year, they steam-rolled the Lakers in four, and then looked like the inferior team in their first two games at home against the Warriors.  Personally, I thought that they weren't going to get past that series after Golden State left San Antonio with a 1-1 series tie, thoroughly outplaying them in each of the first two games.  The Spurs bounced back, though, and were the better team the rest of the way.

Now, the Spurs face another younger team, but one with a drastically different style than they played in last year's Conference Finals, or this year's Semi-Final matchup.  Memphis has a strong inside game and plays very tough defense.  It promises to be a much lower-scoring series with less transition offense and more fundamental basketball.

Since I have to make a pick, I'm going to take San Antonio.  Both teams have been very impressive, but the Spurs may have just a slight edge.  They have more experience, they have guys who have already won multiple championships, and they have home court advantage.  It's a series that is likely to go seven games, and I'd be surprised if we see any real blowouts.  I'll take Tony Parker and the Big Fundamental to help lead the Spurs to the NBA Finals.

Series Prediction: Spurs in 7 Games 

[Note: This post is from John Trifone.  See his other basketball posts here and/or follow him on Twitter @JohnnyT0122.]

Trifone: 2012 NBA Finals Prediction - Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat

After an incredible Game 6 performance from King James, the Miami Heat were able to defend home court in Game 7 and advance to the Finals.  After a very competitive series, one that turned out to be far closer than I thought it would be, the Heat showed flashes of greatness.  However, they also showed some glaring weaknesses.

Miami is easily the most criticized and scrutinized team in the NBA, and while it's pretty clear why, it creates a very interesting dynamic.  Every time the Heat appear to be down (falling behind 2-1 to the Pacers, or falling behind 3-2 to the Celtics after taking a 2-0 lead), everyone, including myself at times, wants to pile on the Heat.  And the reason seems to be that our expectations for them are so high.  We think to ourselves that this team came together, three of the best players in the league, and yet we see them struggle the way any other team might.  It appears that the reality of the situation is that regardless of how they came together, the Big 3 of Miami are simply NOT substantially better than a handful of other teams in the league.

In the prime of his career, Michael Jordan and the Bulls were not challenged.  It was clear who the best team was, and Jordan's Bulls would usually have the series in hand before there was ever even talk of a Game 7.  We lived through this, and wonder why LeBron can't seem to yield the same results, in spite of joining forces with Wade and Bosh.

And the truth of the matter is that the league is just more competitive today; not as a whole, but at the top.  In the Jordan era, we didn't think there were five or six teams at the top, any of which could realistically win it.  I used to be a die-hard Knicks fan, and they were a playoff team year after year.  But I knew in my heart that Ewing and Starks and Oakley simply were not going to beat Jordan and Pippen.  And they never did.  Before free agency became as prevalent, teams simply did not change enough.  And Jordan and Pippen were simply better than Malone/Stockton, Olajuwon, Ewing, Barkley, etc.  The question was not which of a handful of teams will win it all.  It was will any other team rise up and really challenge the Bulls?

Today, we feel that Miami should be that team because of the way that they came together, and the incredibly high expectations we have for those three players.  But as we've seen, Miami is a very good team; often a great team.  But they simply are not head and shoulders above the rest of the league.  And when they struggle, we come down on them as if they should be Jordan's Bulls, rather than simply acknowledge that maybe they're not.

With all of that said, for the second straight year, Miami is headed back to the NBA Finals.  It wasn't always a pretty road and it wasn't always apparent that they would emerge, but once again they have, setting up the NBA's dream matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Celtics and Spurs put forth valiant efforts to make what appears to be one final run for each team, but in the end, we are witnessing the changing of the guard.  It's the two faces of the NBA, the three-time MVP versus the three-time scoring champion.  It's good versus evil in a series that will have just about everyone outside of Miami (and Seattle) rooting for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City was incredibly impressive against San Antonio.  All year, I have felt that the Thunder were a good team, certainly one of the best in the league.  But I definitely thought that they were still a bit young, and with the way the Spurs had been playing, I was more than a bit surprised that they were able to overcome a 2-0 deficit to win four straight.  It's ironic the way we judge Miami's Big 3, as OKC's Big 3 is every bit as good.  James Harden has been playing like the unquestioned best "third option" in the league, if we can still call him that.  And Oklahoma City seems to be winning by not only pouring on the points, but on the defensive end as well.

The Thunder are the favorite to win the title, and deservedly so.

They were more impressive overall than Miami was, and went through a more difficult road, knocking off three championship-caliber teams.  Still, I can't help but feel like LeBron isn't going to let anything stop him this time.  I felt the same way last year, and I still feel that Miami was better than Dallas was last year.  Just not at that moment in time.  Dirk Nowitzki had one of the top-five greatest playoff performances in history.  If Durant can mimic that kind of effort, it could spell the same kind of trouble for Miami this time around. 

However, LeBron is just as capable as Durant of having that kind of a series, and while the Heat have some weaknesses, James has been taking it to another level in the playoffs.  He appears to be less concerned about being criticized and is more focused on taking games over.  He looks like Cleveland Lebron, except he finally might have enough of a supporting cast.

I am as excited for this series as I have been for any series I can remember, and I look forward to watching the two best players on the planet go at each other.  When Dwyane Wade and Russell Westbrook aren't the headliners, you know you're in store for a pretty great matchup.  This series could go either way, but I've felt that in a seven-game series, Miami has been the best team all year.  And I still feel that way today.

Miami in seven.

[Editor's note: This post is by John Trifone (@JohnnyT0122).  Get tickets to the NBA Finals from TicketCity.]

Final Four Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals (Trifone)

The premiere matchup this weekend is clearly Kentucky facing Louisville. Pitino vs. Calipari, vying for bragging rights and in-state basketball dominance. It is Michigan/Ohio St., Yankees/Red Sox, and Duke/UNC all rolled into one. And Pitino has done a masterful job putting all of the pressure on Kentucky. Of course, he's right, all of the pressure is on Kentucky. They are far and away the best team in college basketball, with what will likely be the top 2 picks in the draft next year.

Kentucky has steamrolled everyone.

There may have been a few moments during the tournament where a game appeared close, but that was short-lived. The Wildcats scored 102 points against Indiana in the Sweet 16, one of only two teams to knock them off this year.

102 points!

This wasn't the first round against the Savannah State Tigers or a team that went on a nice run to win their conference tournament even though they had a 12-28 record for the season. This was a top-15 Indiana basketball team in the Sweet 16. Credit Indiana, they actually played a great game. But Kentucky is just too good. For anyone that saw the first half of the Baylor game, there really isn't a lot of room for debate as to who the best team, and heavy favorite to win it all, is.

Louisville has also been fairly impressive. New Mexico posed a pretty tough challenge, but Louisville outlasted them in the Round of 32. Michigan State was the favorite to come out of the bracket, but the Cardinals smothered them defensively. The Spartans struggled against the press, but ultimately, it was their inability to score that kept them from making it a game. They scored a measly 44 points in a game that the Spartans just couldn't make any kind of run at winning. As great of a defensive game as Louisville played against the one seed, perhaps their most impressive win was over a hot Florida team. Louisville was able to stifle the Gator offense enough, and even though they were largely outplayed and trailing for most of the game, they were able to control the game down the stretch and come out with the victory. Pretty impressive that Pitino moved to 10-0 in Sweet 16 games and 7-0 against his former protege, Billy Donovan.

I'd love to go out on a limb and take Louisville to win this game. I am certainly hoping for an entertaining game, and I do believe that Louisville's defense will be able to slow Kentucky a bit. It will also be interesting to see what Pitino comes up with, knowing he is clearly overmatched from a talent perspective. The problem with taking Louisville is that even if Louisville can contain the Wildcat offense, Kentucky's defense is even better than their offense is. In a one-game situation, anything can happen although Louisville needs to be pretty close to perfect to come out on top. But I believe Kentucky is ready for the pressure, and on a mission to win the title.

Prediction: Kentucky 74, Louisville 58

[Editor's note: John Trifone (@JohnnyT0122) is the author of this post. For his prediction for the other Final Four matchup, click here.]

Trifone: First-Week Recap of NCAA Tournament

Although there haven't really been a lot of true buzzer-beaters that we are accustomed to seeing this time of year, this has been one of the most exciting first weekends of the tournament in recent memory. There have been a lot of double-digit seeds advancing, or at least contending for a full 40 minutes. Often times, a 15-seed comes out of the gates on an 8-2 run, only to get trounced by 25 points, and be out of the game by halftime. Not this year.

Thursday was chalk city, with the only real upset being VCU in the 12/5 matchup with Wichita St. Tough to call that too big of an upset, though, as Shaka Smart led the Rams to the Final Four last year. I was disappointed to see them get knocked out in the second round by Indiana, after leading the majority of the game.

Friday brought some history to the March Madness tournament, as for the first time ever, two number 15 seeds advanced to the round of 32. Up until this year, only four 15 seeds have ever knocked off a number two, and two more happened on Friday. First it was Norfolk St., upsetting the mighty Missouri. I have to say, this one shocked me. After following Mizzou for a lot of the year, they had all the talent in the world to make a deep run, and contend for the title. It was reminiscent of 2001 when a Marcus Fizer-led Iowa St. team that had similar aspirations got bounced in the first round by Hampton. As I had Missouri in my Final Four, I was not pleased with the outcome, although I couldn't help but feel torn, rooting against such a massive underdog.

The second major upset was less of a surprise to me. I felt Duke was largely overrated all year, and in fact picked Xavier to knock them off in the second round in my bracket. Still, the way in which it happened was quite surprising. Lehigh pretty much led from start to finish, and Duke never really got back into it. Every time Duke started to make a run, Lehigh had an answer, and down the stretch, losing the lead was never really in jeopardy for the Mountain Hawks. Lehigh came out strong against Xavier, but eventually blew the lead and were unable to become the first ever 15 seed to advance to the sweet 16.

Florida St. gave me a good scare, but were able to fend off the Bonnies and advance. Other notable first round upsets were Ohio over Michigan and South Florida over Temple, as 13 and 12 seeds respectively. Ohio moved on to the Sweet 16, after a strong second-half effort against the Bulls.

Saturday was mostly chalk again, but had some highly entertaining games with some tight finishes. Louisville won by three over New Mexico, Marquette used a late surge to defeat Murray St., who led most of the game, and Ohio St. had it's hands full with Gonzaga. After a close first half, the Buckeyes pulled ahead by double digits, but with under four minutes to go, the Zags managed to tie the game. Still, the higher seeds ended up coming out on top, returning to the normalcy we witnessed on Thursday.

Sunday saw a one seed taken to the the brink, as Saint Louis gave Michigan St. all it could handle. This one didn't really have the feel of an upset because Michigan St. led the whole way. But they just couldn't seem to pull away, and it was a two-point game with about three minutes to go. Michigan St. held on, though, for a four-point win. They play a tough Louisville team next.

Billy Donovan has thus far, been coach of the tournament in my mind. In what should have been a tough matchup against Virginia in the 10/7 game on Friday, the Gators destroyed the Cavaliers by 26 points. In the second round, they played in what can only be accurately described as a shoot around session against the same Norfolk team that knocked out one of the best teams in the country two days before. Donovan must have watched that game and come up with a game plan that Florida executed perfectly. They absolutely crushed Norfolk St. 84-50, in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicates.

North Carolina St. was another double-digit seed to make the final 16, upsetting Georgetown in a game that was pretty close throughout.

Purdue ALMOST pulled off another big upset, leading the game just about wire to wire. Kansas took a one-point lead with under three minutes to go, and Purdue hit two consecutive buckets to go back up three. With under a minute, Kansas made some great defensive plays and took the lead for good, winning a thriller by three. Purdue had a decent look to tie it when they inbounded it cross court with 2.5 seconds to go, but it bricked out as the buzzer sounded.

The final game of the night was a war of attrition between Cincinnati and Florida St. This was a true bracket buster for me since I had Florida St. going to the Final Four, whereas most others have Ohio St. No team led by more than five points until the final minute, but Cincinnati came out on top, making the state of Ohio an incredible 8-0 in the tournament this year.

Overall, some great action so far. Hopefully we'll see some true buzzer-beaters and some more good games next week as well.

[Editor's note: John Trifone (@JohnnyT0122), the author of this post, is currently tied for first place in our 98-entry March Madness group. In other words, feel free to follow him on Twitter and mock and heckle him.]

Trifone: Some NCAA Championship Futures to Capitalize On

I was looking over the odds to win the NCAA championship (at Sportsbook.com), and thought I'd see if I could find a few long shots to win the tournament. It's a little comical going down the list because there are so many teams paying enormous odds.

Gonzaga, for example, is 75-1. Bookies aren't fools, though.

They offer the huge payouts because the likelihood of one of these teams winning is far worse. I'd love to get 500-1, but Northwestern simply isn't going to rattle off six in a row in March. There were, however, a few bets; none of which I would call true "long shots" that are giving pretty good odds that have a legitimate chance to win it.

I'll say, for the record, that I think that this is the year that Calipari wins his first title, as I think that Kentucky is the best team in college basketball. Kentucky is a 2-1 favorite, which doesn't seem like very good odds, but may be pretty close to accurate. If Kentucky made a run at it and got to the Final Four, you could certainly try and hedge your bet at that point, already having 2-1 on the Wildcats. Still, taking Kentucky against the field at only 2-1 is a tough proposition.

So what are some other reasonable wagers?

Georgetown at 25-1 seems like a pretty good bet to me. They are currently number 10 in the nation and have only one loss outside of conference play. The Big East may not be as good as it's been in recent years, but it's still one of the toughest conferences in the country, and with a halfway decent draw, Georgetown could certainly make some noise.

Michigan State at 12-1 is another decent play. The Big Ten is the premiere conference this year and Michigan State has posted a 10-3 record in conference play. They are currently number seven in the country, and let's be honest; doesn't Tom Izzo make the Final Four like every year?

North Carolina and Syracuse are both 8-1. Carolina has underachieved this year. They certainly have the talent to win it all, but have yet to put it all together this season. In the UNC-Duke rivalry, I'm a Carolina guy, but to date they haven't made me believe they're going to win it all this year. I'd stay away from them, even at 8-1. Syracuse, on the other hand, is a more intriguing play. Their only loss this season was on the road to a solid Notre Dame team. No team goes undefeated anymore, especially not in a conference as competitive as the Big East. Earlier in the season, Syracuse looked pretty unbeatable. They have been a bit more vulnerable of late, with very close victories at home against West Virginia and Georgetown, and with just a one-point road win at Louisville. Still, Syracuse has been impressive, and if they can rebound the ball, they can beat anyone in the country. They're a virtual lock for a one seed, so should be positioned for a deep run. I'll take 8-1 on the Orange.

The last bet I like is a Missouri team, who is also 8-1 to win it all. Missouri is for real this year, losing only two games (both in conference), and currently ranked third in the nation. Since losing at Oklahoma State on January 25th, Missouri has rattled off seven wins in a row, beating Texas and Oklahoma on the road, as well as number eight ranked Kansas and number six ranked Baylor. Missouri has great guards, and can hit free throws down the stretch; something that can be extremely important at the end of tight games.

All of these futures wagers are tough to predict, especially because the bracket you draw plays such a big role. But at this point in the season, these are a few of the bets I like. Georgetown's 25-1 looks the most attractive, but my favorite bet would be Missouri at 8-1.

[Editor's note: This post is by John Trifone (@JohnnyT0122), who also contributes at our NFL site: Eat, Drink and Sleep Football (see John's archives).]